Tuesday, August 25, 2009

No Advantage

Unfortunately, friends, this is one of those trading times where an advantage is hard to gain. Monday and Tuesday, August 24 and 25, are a perfect example. In both cases, markets sold off substantially from opening strength. But, before jumping in a full bear suit, they closed in the green both days, albeit less green than achieved around 9:45 in the am. I am obviously respecting the market's trend and potential for a blow off to my S$P 1112 max target, so that's keeping me from getting too aggressive on the short side. As for gold, i stand equally confused. Whipsawing between 935 and 955, gold is overbought on a futures basis (COT structure), but not overbought enough to suggest that it MUST go down. As a matter of fact, gold's sideways to down 'last couple of weeks' has improved the COT structure, but only slightly. Confusing matters, gold's MACD an RSI, other technical indicators traders cue for an edge are in no-man's land, that area between the baseline and the service line in tennis where any good coach will yell at you for standing. All in all, the situation calls for being flat here. Those with longs that are NOT parabolically extended may wish to hang on for one final push. Shorts would be advised to be cautious of one final hurrah. I am flat, as a pancake. I am waiting for a down move in gold and silver before adding exposure, but i am equally cognizant that we could be carving out a base right here. Like i said, confused. And if i am confused, not to toot my own horn, but its pretty damn confusing out there. I guess i gave it a ring...my horn. Anyhow, that's not important. When i get confused, i get flat, and that's where I'm at, proudly. Downside risk is growing. And i certainly wouldn't have liked oil's 3 point plunge today if i were loaded on the bullish side...

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